Unmasking My Inner Pundit
by Doug Hecox, Oct. 6, 2004
The one word America can easily do without is "pundit." Every four years, our great Nation suffers a plague of "educated opinions" from pundits, the legion of self-appointed experts who hide behind attitude and call it expertise.
Pundits like me predict Vice President Dick Cheney's forthright manner will help President Bush win reelection. Others think Cheney, a grandmaster of American politics if ever there was one, was a little rough on "Skippy," or whatever the name was of that boy sitting at the table with him during the debate Tuesday night. A message to Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) - never send a boy to do a vice president's job.
Other pundits can slice and dice audience and polling data to come up with extrapolations and pie charts to reveal who the winner on November 2 will be. They might even provide expert commentary about the impact of this candidate's ads and the low yield of the other candidate's strategic messaging. Either way, for the next month, America will be bathed in white noise, an Aurora Borealis of meaningless gibberish spouted by those who think they know more than you do. Guess what? They don't.
As has been my custom for several years now, I try to share whatever meager insights I can with you by carefully analyzing traditional American voting behavior indicators - and my favorite is the sale of Halloween masks.
According to those in the costume business, the winner of every presidential campaign since 1980 has been the candidate whose masks sold the most during Halloween. By all accounts, it's something of a mixed bag. According to BuyCostumes.com, the online presence of a Wisconsin-based costume marketer, Bush masks trail Kerry masks by about 14 percent. In fairness, the Bush mask looks more like President Nixon than Dubya, which might be a factor. You'll remember that this company said the same thing about Bush over Al Gore in 2000, right down to the same percentage points.
That said, Anniescostumes.com -- another online costumer -- claims Bush masks lead Kerry masks, 55 percent to 45 percent. No word on whether or not Ralph Nader mask sales will play a decisive role in Halloween sales this year, nor whether Nader has endorsed any masks as consumer-friendly. Until he does, I'll consider Nader masks unwearable at any speed.
"We have been using the mask sales to predict the election winner for the last three Presidential Elections and the results have been accurate three times in a row," said Harold Maxwell, president of Annie's Costumes, "so this year we predict a slim victory for George W. Bush."
I should also add that, while the Bush and Kerry masks barely resemble their namesakes, the Dick Cheney mask - available through Halloween-mask.com - is pretty good. It looks just like him, except it has a better smile. If you ran into the actual Vice President Cheney, you'd find him not smiling. He has no joy in his heart because, as a friend who knows the Vice President once confided to me, "Joy is just one of the many options they tried to force on him in the pacemaker showroom." He added that the Vice President thought it would be cheaper to get the pacemaker with a built-in CD player, so he could wake up with a song in his heart.
With a close race like this, a musical heart may be the decisive factor. The only thing musical in the Kerry campaign is the steady drumbeat of flip-flopping and, as Election Day draws near, it's starting to sound more like a drum roll.
But don't take my word for it. I'm just a pundit.